Description Comments

“Specials make change unlikely”

More Info →

Description: This image was taken by the Evening Standard on Saturday 28th of November 1981 but was not published. It depicts Social Credit leader Bruce Beetham celebrating his successful campaign for the Rangitikei parliamentary seat, with his wife Beverley and various supporters at the Victory Hall in Marton.

The caption read: “BRUCE BEETHAM, his wife Beverley and the president of the Rangitikei branch of Social Credit Mr Jack Corliss cheer their victory (appropriately) in Victory Hall, Marton, on Saturday night.”

The article “Specials make change unlikely” read:

“LABOUR will lose Gisborne but regain Taupo.

If the 1978 figures are any guide, that looks the most likely outcome of the ‘hung’ election.

Last election in Taupo, Labour won the special vote count by 54 votes.

If that trend continues this time, it will give defeated Labour M.P. M r Jack Ridley enough votes to overcome his election night deficit of 16.

In Gisborne last election however, the special votes favoured National MP Mr Bob Bell by a margin of 113 - enough for him to overcome Labour's provisional majority of 96.

And National should hang on to Helensville, where M.P. Mr Dail Jones won a precarious majority of 44 on Saturday night. Here again, the special votes favoured National in1978 - by 25.

If all this happens then, there will be no change in the state of the parties from Saturday night – National 46, Labour 44, and Social Credit 2.

Massey University political scientist Dr Jack Vowles, who prepared a series of pre-election opinion polls tor the ‘Evening Standard’ and 2ZA in the Palmerston North and Manawatu electorates, said today the results locally fell well within the margin of error each poll contained.

‘There does seem to have been a swing back to the Government in the last week which, of course, wasn't reflected in the polls because the last of them was taken earlier,’ he said.

‘But our polls were pretty accurate. For example, we said Labour would win Palmerston North quite comfortably and they did.

‘People have got to remember that the last poll in the city measured opinion in Palmerston North in the second to last week.

‘It wasn't necessarily a prediction.’

This last poll showed a 2.5 percent swing to Labour in the city, but on election night there was a swing of about 1.7 percent to National in Palmerston North.

‘That was well within our margin, of error,’ said Dr Vowles.

Saturday night's victory for Labour's Trevor de Cleene was one of the biggest majorities gained by the party in Palmerston North In recent political history.

Although down 660 on Labour's winning 2736 majority in 1978, Mr de Cleene's margin easily tops other majorities posted by Labour and National in the city since retired Labour M.P. Mr Joe Walding entered Parliament in 1967.

Until the 1978 election, the best majority Mr Walding achieved in Palmerston North was 1766.

He entered Parliament in a by-election in 1967, with a majority of 592, which was trimmed to 161 in 1969. National's Mr John Lithgow held Palmerston North for three years when he won in the National landslide of 1975 by 142.

Mr de Cleene could increase his majority if the special votes follow the 1978 trend, when Labour took 144 more than National.

By contrast, in neighbouring Manawatu, National M.P. Mr Michael Cox achieved a 6.6 percent election swing - the biggest to the Government in any electorate.

On the provisional figures, Mr Cox more than doubled his 1978 majority, Social Credit also picked up support, but Labour declined by more than 1500 votes.

Meanwhile, voter turnout was up, but the number of votes cast was down in the Palmerston North, Manawatu, Horowhenua and Rangitikei electorates.

That unusual situation with special votes still to be counted, and which should eventually push the totals beyond those of 1978 – was the result of the clean up of the electoral rolls for this election.

In Palmerston North, for instance, Saturday night's voting figures, not including special votes, are down by more than 2000 on 1978's final figures -19,315 compared with 21,679.

But the voter turnout is already up 13 percent.

Saturday's 19,315 vote out of a total roll of 23,872 means a voter turnout of 80.91 percent.

In 1978 the roll stood at 31,901 and the vote of 21.679 meant the voter turnout was a low 67.64 percent.

In the Manawatu electorate, where almost 3000 names were trimmed from the roll, the voting figures for Saturday night were down by about 1000 on final figures of three years ago - 17,273 compared with 18,260.

But the voter turnout in the electorate on Saturday was 79.1 percent, compared with 73.9 percent in 1978.

The trend was the same in the Rangitikei and Horowhenua electorates, but Pahiatua was the ехсерtion, where more than 3000 extra voters journeyed to the polling booths on Saturday than did in 1978.

Scrutineering of votes would begin this week, and then final counting, including special votes, would get underway.”